7 minute read
Will Fed’s data dependency generate market volatility?
6 minute read
The bullish stock market seems to be overlooking deteriorating fundamentals.
2 minute read
Robust September jobs report supports view the economy is headed for rotation, not recession.
Weakest Back-to-School spending in 15 years.
Federal Reserve ‘recalibrates’ monetary policy.
On the cusp of cutting rates, the only unknowns are the pace and magnitude.
Fed on track to begin cutting rates later this month.
5 minute read
Presidential elections typically gather steam after Labor Day.
Powell adopts dovish tone in his Jackson Hole keynote
Will politicians finally address the ballooning U.S. debt and deficit?
Weak jobs report should prompt Fed to cut rates in September.
Combination could chill the Fed longer than the consensus believes.
The U.S. economy is slowing and inflation declining, but when will the Fed cut rates?
8 minute read
Headline payroll strength hides weaker details.
The presidential debate may be the only one in the election cycle.
Filling up at the pump matters to voters.
Despite dovish inflation data, Fed issues hawkish dots.
Nonfarm payroll strength belies weakness in other areas.
Fed likely to take the summer off.
Baby bust fuels need for immigration and Social Security reform.
Stocks soar as CPI eases despite declining retail sales and confidence.
3 minute read
The U.S. Treasury’s plan to buy back some of its securities should have many benefits.
4 minute read
Other inflation metrics remain sticky and persistent.
Does today’s soft jobs report successfully change the Fed's narrative?
Cooling GDP and accelerating inflation problematic for the Fed.
With yields rising and P/Es contracting, we need good first-quarter earnings.
Re-accelerating inflation and strong labor market delay Fed cuts.
Much stronger-than-expected jobs report keeps Fed rate cuts on hold.
With solid growth, sticky inflation and surging stocks, the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.
Is the equity market rally inconsistent with Fed policy?
Biden left more questions than answers about his economic policies in his SOTU address.
Strong headline gains but weak data underneath.
Strong wage growth keeps Fed cuts off the bases.
Dismal retail sales in January cap a weak holiday spending season.
Stocks strong start portends a volatile but positive year.
Strong headline gains but a mixed picture beneath the surface.
Should keep the Fed on the sidelines in March.
Labor market and consumer spending firm, while inflation rises.
Zero for two out of the gate.
Strong job gains and rising wages keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
Three things to watch in 2024.
Inflation grinds lower, the Fed throws in the towel and holiday spending slows.
Fed rate cuts not coming anytime soon.
As the economy slows across the board, the Fed is done hiking rates.
Thanksgiving brings increased travel, falling prices and rallying financial markets.
Despite Biden’s terrible polling, Democrats performed well in off-year elections, which should worry the GOP.
Financial markets rally on perceived Fed pause.